Clear, evidence-backed predictions about biotech and medicine—scored by probability, bounded by time, and written for curious people who want signal before consensus.
Featured forecast
Forecast probability
A first FDA approval for a multi-cancer blood screening test by the end of 2027.
Probabilities reflect editorial judgment—not medical or investment advice.
The forecast board
Each call has a deadline, a measurable outcome, and evidence that can move the score.
A favorable advisory vote is a regulatory milestone, not an FDA approval. The next question is what population and intended use an eventual FDA decision would cover.
Evidence updated . Forecast remains open.
What changed: According to GRAIL's September 23 report, the FDA panel voted 7–2, with one abstention, that Galleri's benefits outweigh its risks. The safety vote was 10–0 and the effectiveness vote was 6–4. These are the manufacturer's reported results; the FDA meeting materials are linked below.
What that means: FDA advisory recommendations are non-binding. The vote alone does not resolve this forecast. A final FDA approval and its labeled screening indication are the milestones to watch.
Important limits: FDA's review explains that a negative result cannot exclude cancer and that recommended single-cancer screening should continue. A positive signal requires diagnostic evaluation. Detecting cancer signals does not by itself establish that screening reduces deaths.
Forecast judgment: The displayed 72% is carried forward from the September baseline. It is an uncalibrated editorial estimate, not a clinical statistic or a newly calculated probability. We have updated the evidence without inventing a numerical adjustment.
What would settle the call: A dated FDA approval for a multi-cancer blood screening indication on or before December 31, 2027. An advisory vote or existing laboratory availability does not count. A request for additional evidence could delay the outcome beyond that deadline.
GRAIL: September 23 vote report
A repeatable regulatory framework—not one celebrated treatment—would be the real shift for ultra-rare, biologically understood conditions.
Raises the odds: FDA's 2026 draft guidance outlines a plausible-mechanism framework for individualized therapies.
Could break the call: manufacturing consistency, durability data, or a high-profile safety event.
Primary signal: FDA draft guidance ↗Success means repeatable trials with common endpoints and follow-up—not that organ scarcity is solved or routine transplantation has arrived.
Raises the odds: FDA's 2026 guidance agenda explicitly includes clinical study of porcine-derived solid organs.
Could break the call: zoonotic risk, immune rejection, inconsistent graft survival, or trial pauses.
Primary signal: FDA CBER guidance agenda ↗The platform has regulatory precedent. The harder question is whether it can show durable, specific effects in a more biologically complex disease.
Raises the odds: FDA has already approved an orally administered microbiota product for recurrent C. difficile.
Could break the call: noisy endpoints, person-to-person variation, or failure to reproduce early trial results.
Primary signal: FDA approval announcement ↗No forecasts match this horizon yet.
October update: diagnostics evidence refreshed October 1. The other forecast cards retain their September 2026 baseline assessments.
How it works
Track regulatory actions, trial readouts, technical bottlenecks, and changes in capital.
Write one measurable claim with a deadline. No vague “the future is coming” language.
Publish a probability, show the strongest evidence, and move the number when facts change.
Signal Brief · In development
The planned free brief will explain one forecast and the evidence behind it. Newsletter subscriptions and delivery are not available yet. Current updates are published on this site.
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